I know I know… polls are polls and its early. But its not that early. I mean, the first national primary debate is this coming Thursday (August 6) and Iowans caucus just five months from now. So essentially were entering full on, full scale GOP primary season right now.
So its time to start taking some of these numbers seriously. And some of the latest numbers have the GOP establishment up in arms.
First well look at the latest poll out from Iowa. The poll was done by Gravis Marketing. The sample included likely caucus goers, 41% of whom identified as conservative or very conservative.
Here is what the results look like.
Thats a pretty astonishing lead for Donald Trump in a state where pundits predicted Trump would have problems. Most other Iowa polls have Scott Walker out front, but those polls were all taken a few weeks ago. This one was conducted this past week and the results are stunning.
The second poll is even more shocking. Its a poll done by St Pete Polls and it surveyed likely primary voters across Florida. The results should show Jeb Bush with a commanding lead, but they dont. Not at all.
Donald Trump: 26.1%
Jeb Bush: 20.0%
Scott Walker: 12.2%
Marco Rubio: 9.7%
Ben Carson: 4.5%
Ted Cruz: 4.2%
John Kasich: 4.1%
Rand Paul: 3.3%
Unsure or Someone else: 15.9%
The above are the statewide numbers. As if that isnt shocking enough, here is the breakdown for primary voters in Miami where both Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio call home.
Unsure or Someone Else: 12.5%
Of course, the big Bush money hasnt yet kicked in across Florida, but still these numbers are rather amazing. Trump is beating Jeb Bush where Jeb Bush wins. If through some miracle Bush actually loses Florida, where exactly is he going to win?
Interesting to say the least.